The Next Presidential Election and Conservative Anxiety in Iran

By Yadullah Shahibzadeh

When asked about his political future after the next year presidential election, in his recent interview with Iran’s state TV, Mohmoud Ahmadinezhad kicked off a new political controversy in Iran. He responded by saying that; “Who says that my government will end after the next year presidential election?”  According to the Iranian election laws, two terms presidents can stand as presidential candidates after a four year pause. Ahmadinezhad’s statement indicates his hopes for the victory of a members of his government in the next year election. Iranian Politicians and analyst in Iran have compared Ahmadinezhad’s style of government to Vladimir Putin and his tendency to copy the Putin-Medvedev model, with Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaiy, his chief of staff as the Iranian Medvedev. There are several other candidates for the Iranian Medvedev in the Ahmadinezhad’s government, if Rahim-Mashaiy is disqualified by the Guardian Council.  Hypothetically, if one of  Ahmadinezhad’s close allies wins the presidency in the next year presidential election he will continue his  control of the government until he regains presidential power in the 2017 presidential election. But with regard to the fate of previous political alliances, the Putin-Medvedev model will hardly work in the Islamic Republic.

It began with Abolhasan Banisadr’s alliance, an Islamist social democrat with the radical Islamist left to marginalize the liberal forces that led the provisional government in 1979. Less than two years later Banisadr was ousted from office by a parliament that was dominated by the Islamist left. In order to establish its extended dominance on political power in Iran the Islamist left took side with the Islamist conservatives against president Banisadr in 1981 and against Ayatollah Montazari in 1988. Montazeri was supposed to become Iran’s next leader after Ayatollah Khomeini. The Islamist left was sidelined by the alliance of Hashemi Rafsanjani and the conservatives in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. Again, in the late 1990s, after the Islamist left became reform oriented and took power 1979-2005, it tried to force Hashemi Rafsanjani out of Iranian politics because of his previous alliance with the conservatives in the late 1980s and the early 1990s against the Islamist left. As a result, Rafsanjani entered in a new alliance with the conservatives to contain democratic reforms in the system. The anti-reform alliance served neither Rafsanjani nor the leaders of the conservative establishment. It, surprisingly, gave birth to young neo-conservative forces that did not follow a clear ideological line but claimed total obedience to Iran’s leader, Ayatllah Khamenei.  In fact, Ahmadinezhad was an accidental product of the competition between the newly emerged pragmatist and hardliner neo-conservative forces that grew on the margin of the reformist-conservative disputes in 1997-2005. The hardliner neo-conservative forces received support from the Revolutionary Guard, the archconservative Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi and Iran’s leader. What Ahmadinezhad shared with Mesbah Yazdi and the Revolutionary Guard was their total obedience to the leader’s authority that as they claimed had no constitutional limits. Ahmadinezhad said during his first presidential election campaign that as Iran’s president he would leave all political decisions to the leader in order to have enough time to carry on an effective executive role. Now, seven years later, Ahmadinezhad is blamed by Mesbah Yazdi and the Revolutionary Guard for his disobedience to the leader. He is hated by the majority of the neo-conservatives in the parliament. He has no reliable connection to the Revolutionary Guard and several members of his government are accused of economic corruption by the Iranian judiciary. According to the estimates released by his former conservative and neoconservative allies, Iran’s oil earnings during his government equates to the total oil revenue that Iran had gained since the discovery of Oil in 1907 to 2005, the year Ahmadinezhad became Iran’s president. Ahamadninezhad is accused, by the same people who supported him by all institutional, legal and illegal means in the 2009 presidential election against the reform oriented candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, to have destroyed the Iranian economy in a way that no government has never done before.

In April 2011, Ahmadinezhad fired his intelligent minister. The decision was reversed by Iran’s leader. He ordered the intelligent minister to remain in his position. Believing that the leader’s action was an illegal action that questioned the president’s constitutional authority, Ahmadinezhad refused to go to work and stayed away from cabinet meetings for 11 days. Ahamadinezhad expected that his action instigate a popular response. When 11 days passed and not a single sole in Iran bothered about the president’s situation and nobody outside the tiny circle around him took his side he became an easy target for Khameni’s supporters. Disappointed with the people and disconnected with the leader, Ahmadinezhad has become, according to many politicians in the conservative camp, a pain in the system that must be tolerated until the end of his term.

While many of Ahmadinezhad’s former allies share the view that he has no political future, he has started to raise political issues for which the reform oriented forces and the Green Movement activists have been prosecuted, imprisoned and deprived from the political rights that they enjoyed in the past. In Ahmadinezhad’s new terminology the country’s president is the expression of the general will of the nation and the guardian of the constitution and the protector of people’s constitutional political and civil rights. Ahamdinezhad’s relationship with his former conservative allies in the last two years proves that the ones who start a political game to gain a bigger share of political power and those who win the political power at the end of the game in the Islamic Republic are not necessarily the same people. Ahmadinezhad’s ascendance to power was a result of the political dispute between the reform oriented and the conservatives. While leading figures in the conservative including Iran’s leader did not did not consider Ahmadinezhad as more than a footsoldier in their fight against the reform oriented political forces, it was Ahmadinezhad who used every accessible means to the conservatives for his own personal gains and then refused to share his power with the conservative establishment. Now, with regard to the ways Ahmadinezhad has treated the people who assisted him in his ascendance to power, he cannot be sure that the person he helps to become the next president will remain loyal to him as president. But what is at stake in the next presidential election is not Ahmadinezhad’s political future, but the role of Iran’s leader in presidential elections. Ali Motahari, an outspoken Iranian parliament member said recently that Ahmadinezhad’s presidency was a political and economic disaster but the disaster would not have occurred if the conservatives did not misjudge the relation and support of the leader to Ahmadinezhad. According to this parliament member almost 90 % of the conservatives knew that Ahmadinezhad would bring nothing but economic and political failure. Yet they supported him because they believed he was the leader’s preferred presidential candidate. The conservatives should have, according to this view, thought independently and select and support a presidential candidate who could have eased political tensions instead of inflaming them by his every word and action. The explicit message of this view to the leader is clear; please stay away from the next year presidential election.

22 Responses to “The Next Presidential Election and Conservative Anxiety in Iran”

  1. 1 February 4, 2013 at 00:08

    Good blog post. I definitely love this site. Thanks!

  2. 2 New Motorcycles for sale February 23, 2013 at 04:13

    A really fascinating read, I may possibly well not agree entirely,
    but you do make some quite legitimate points.

  3. 3 Lorenza March 18, 2013 at 15:08

    I have to convey my respect for your kindness for all those that demand guidance on this one field.

    Your particular commitment to passing the remedy up and down has been incredibly functional and has continually
    empowered most people just like me to achieve their dreams.
    Your amazing insightful information entails a lot to me and specifically to my peers.

    Thanks a ton; from all of us.

  4. 4 March 20, 2013 at 14:11

    I have to convey my respect for your kindness for all those that need guidance on this 1
    field. Your unique commitment to passing the answer up and down has been
    extremely functional and has continually empowered most people just
    like me to accomplish their dreams. Your wonderful insightful details entails considerably to me and specially to my peers.
    Thanks a ton; from all of us.

  5. 5 Marylou March 26, 2013 at 07:31

    We don’t fall for fake cures that may actually kill us.In fact, some medicines, including those for children contained cocaine heroin, and opium..Also, hydrotherapy helps the cells and organs of the body to function properly, skin being the largest organ in the body, requires huge supplies of water to remain in good condition.Embedded videos as well as links of online streaming site are provided in this e-book.It doesn’t satisfy
    medical doctors, who should give hope recommended to their
    overweight sufferers, and it doesn’t satisfy consumers who want instant fat loss and never having to change their healthy eating plan.Excess body weight exercise program for beginners.Are you interested in losing weight?The best part of this fitness regime is that you can follow these exercises at home also.Do you would like to get in wonderful form?The videos related to this fitness program give a detailed explanation of the exercises to be performed.The issues starts when users never follow your manufacturer’s
    guidelines.As this program has been developed by an ex-warrior, hence full dedication is expected from
    you.Instead, rely on eating in moderation,
    five-six times a day.Some of these types of lasers are made to exfoliate and activate skin traits to produce
    more collagen that will later on create help a younger looking appearance in the epidermis.

    The food which is in fashion these days is the processed food.
    Thus, you always have two options to view these exercises.

  6. 6 April 2, 2013 at 04:33

    I’m truly loving the theme/design of your internet website. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility issues? Several of my blog readers have complained about my internet site not working properly in Explorer but looks fantastic in Chrome. Do you have any guidelines to help fix this problem?

  7. 7 Nathan April 9, 2013 at 09:59

    Hello, yeah this article is actually fastidious and I have
    learned lot of things from it about blogging.

  8. 8 Simon April 16, 2013 at 02:17

    Hello there! I could have sworn I’ve been to this site before but after looking at a few of the articles I realized it’s new to
    me. Anyhow, I’m certainly pleased I came across it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back regularly!

  9. 9 sex kontaktannonser April 22, 2013 at 20:44

    Det er også veldig sexy å ligge på ryggen, på en pute, og dra
    opp knærne til hver side. Det aller enkleste er
    å inkludere rumpehullet i den vanlige kosingen og kjælingen med kjønnsorganet,
    uten å stikke fingeren inn:. Hvis du ønsker deg et eventyr med en sexpartner, så ta turen til knull kontakt.

  10. 10 Marcella May 1, 2013 at 05:03

    Further benefits include vitamins E, D, magnesium,
    and calcium which thickens and also adds shine to hair. Olive Oil has also long been used to reduce the appearance of scars on the skin.

    It helps balance the moisture in the skin, or replenish moisture that has been

  11. 11 Patsy May 1, 2013 at 07:40

    The skin is the largest organ of the human body and it
    has the ability to absorb the nutrients contained within almond oil just
    by rubbing it onto your skin. Another soaking recipe is combining rose
    petals, rosemary and lavender sprigs, lavender oil and
    Epsom salt. If you are suffering from thin and brittle hair, almond oil can make your hair grow thicker
    and stronger over time as well.

  12. 12 autocad electrical 2014 release date May 2, 2013 at 01:33

    Hi there! I just would like to give an enormous thumbs up for the nice information you may have
    right here on this post. I shall be coming back to your blog
    for more soon.

  13. 13 accounting information systems 12th edition answer key May 20, 2013 at 13:21

    Good day! I simply would like to give a huge thumbs up for the nice data you have here on
    this post. I can be coming back to your weblog for more soon.

  14. 14 Doris May 30, 2013 at 00:58

    Even though nearly all drip coffee makers make coffee in the identical manner, only a few drip coffee brewers are made equal!
    alongside a lot of countless versions and additionally designs to select from it is crucial so that you could perform some scientific studies .
    It is the good idea to clean the glass cooking pot daily using the warm soapy water
    however people simply provide it a quick rinse and prepare another cooking pot at once disregarding to wash the collecting oil off the inside of.

  15. 15 Mellissa June 4, 2013 at 19:45

    Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.
    You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just
    posting videos to your weblog when you could be giving
    us something enlightening to read?

  16. 16 Here June 21, 2013 at 02:06

    Hello there! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with SEO?
    I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good results.
    If you know of any please share. Kudos!

  17. 17 July 9, 2013 at 07:49

    Great post! We are linking to this particularly great content on our site.
    Keep up the great writing.

  18. 18 sex på nettet July 12, 2013 at 23:23

    Sex på nettet kan være en måte å bli kjent med
    egen seksuelle preferanser eller også søke egen fantasier på,
    og jeg ikke gå ut å finne seg en partner. Det er også lettere
    stand til å få en partner. Sex dating Norge tillater raskt bli kjent med partner for sex
    jeg drømmer om stor partner for sex. Du må være ha en stor penis,
    sexy and hendig. Attraktiv nympho kvinne drømmer om deg 🙂
    ønsker norsk venn for knull.
    Har en drøm om sex date med stor kvinne 😉 om noen kan
    gjøre en reality gruven ønske, Kontakt meg
    liker å send knulle sex chat og lytte dirty historier.
    kødde med meg
    jeg er kåt for nye mann for sex også søker sex chat
    Rundt oss er det dårlig porno. Ønsker du å søke, spennende eller også nakne erotiske dating sider skal
    være litt av utholdenhet.
    Sex på nettet allerede veldig enkelt tilgjengelig
    for de som ønsker å finne vanskelig mens hemmelig knull.

  19. 19 Youtube July 29, 2013 at 14:58

    Good day! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be ok. I’m definitely enjoying your blog and look
    forward to new updates.

  20. 20 мебель August 1, 2013 at 10:03

    hello there and thank you for your information ?

    I have certainly picked up something new from right here.

    I did alternatively experience a few technical
    issues the use of this site, since I skilled to reload the web site many instances prior to I may
    just get it to load correctly. I have been brooding about in case your hosting is OK?
    Now not that I’m complaining, however sluggish loading circumstances times will sometimes affect your placement in google and can damage your high quality ranking if ads and marketing with Adwords. Anyway I am including this RSS to my email and could glance out for much more of your respective intriguing content. Ensure that you update this once more soon..

  21. 21 Plan de Ventas January 6, 2014 at 23:59

    Does your blog have a contact page? I’m having a tough time locating it but, I’d like to shoot
    you an email. I’ve got some suggestions for your blog you might
    be interested in hearing. Either way, great website and I look forward to seeing it grow over time.

  22. 22 best loss program weight sacramento August 19, 2014 at 04:03

    Everything is very open with a very clear clarification of the challenges.
    It was truly informative. Your website is useful. Thanks for sharing!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: